Dr. Ivilina Popova - Scholarly Author

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Dr. Ivilina Popova
Assistant Professor
Finance Department
Albers School of Business and Economics
Seattle University

Academic Home Page

Ph.D., Case Western Reserve University

Industry Experience:
Deutsche Asset Management, Director
Ceiba Asset Management, Partner
Koch Capital Markets, Head of Equity Research

Academic Experience:
Krannert Graduate School of Management, Purdue University

     Dr. Popova's Table of Contents
     in chronological order

Bayesian forecasting of prepayment rates for individual pools of mortgages
by Ivilina Popova, Elmira Popova, & Edward I. George
Optimal hedge fund allocation with asymmetric preferences and distributions
by Ivilina Popova, Elmira Popova, David Morton, & Jot K. Yau

Bayesian forecasting of prepayment rates for individual pools of mortgages
by Ivilina Popova, Elmira Popova, & Edward I. George

Abstract
This paper proposes a novel approach for modeling prepayment rates of individual pools of mortgages. The model incorporates the empirical evidence that prepayment is past dependent via Bayesian methodology. There are many factors that influence the prepayment behavior and for many of them there is no available (or impossible to gather) information. We implement this issue by creating a Bayesian mixture model and construct a Markov Chain Monte Carlo
algorithm to estimate the parameters. We assess the model on a data set from the Bloomberg Database. Our results show that the burnout effect is a significant variable for explaining normal prepayment activities. This result does not hold when prepayment is triggered by non-pool dependent events. We show how to use the new model to compute prices for Mortgage Backed Securities. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional method for obtaining such prices and the proposed model can be easily incorporated within simulation pricing framework. Prices for standard Pass-Throughs are obtained using simulation.

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Optimal hedge fund allocation with asymmetric preferences and distributions
by Ivilina Popova, Elmira Popova, David Morton, & Jot K. Yau

Abstract
Hedge funds typically have non-normal return distributions marked by significant positive or negative skewness and high kurtosis. Mean-variance optimization models ignore these higher moments of the return distribution, and thus fail to convince investors who care about the unwanted skewness and kurtosis that hedge funds may work well in a portfolio. We use a new method which incorporates Monte Carlo simulation and optimization to solve for a variety of investment objectives and address the special issues of hedge fund allocation. We applied the new optimization model to examine the effects of semi-variance, conditional third and fourth moments on portfolio allocation with hedge funds. We show that conditional on the investor’s objective, a substantial allocation to hedge funds is justified even with consideration for the highly unusual skewness and kurtosis.

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HEDGE FUND RISK AND OTHER DISCLOSURES

Hedge funds, including fund of funds (“Hedge Funds”), are unregistered private investment partnerships, funds or pools that may invest and trade in many different markets, strategies and instruments (including securities, non-securities and derivatives) and are NOT subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, including mutual fund requirements to provide certain periodic and standardized pricing and valuation information to investors. There are substantial risks in investing in Hedge Funds. Persons interested in investing in Hedge Funds should carefully note the following:

Hedge Funds represent speculative investments and involve a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his/her investment. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment in a Hedge Fund.
An investment in a Hedge Fund should be discretionary capital set aside strictly for speculative purposes.
An investment in a Hedge Fund is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified eligible investors may invest in Hedge Funds.
Hedge Fund offering documents are not reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators
Hedge Funds may be leveraged (including highly leveraged) and a Hedge Fund’s performance may be volatile
An investment in a Hedge Fund may be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in a Hedge Fund. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in a Hedge Fund and none is expected to develop.
A Hedge Fund may have little or no operating history or performance and may use hypothetical or pro forma performance which may not reflect actual trading done by the manager or advisor and should be reviewed carefully. Investors should not place undue reliance on hypothetical or pro forma performance.
A Hedge Fund’s manager or advisor has total trading authority over the Hedge Fund.
A Hedge Fund may use a single advisor or employ a single strategy, which could mean a lack of diversification and higher risk.
A Hedge Fund (for example, a fund of funds) and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be disclosed to investors
A Hedge Fund may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully.
A Hedge Fund may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.
A Hedge Fund may provide no transparency regarding its underlying investments (including sub-funds in a fund of funds structure) to investors. If this is the case, there will be no way for an investor to monitor the specific investments made by the Hedge Fund or, in a fund of funds structure, to know whether the sub-fund investments are consistent with the Hedge Fund’s investment strategy or risk levels.
A Hedge Fund may execute a substantial portion of trades on foreign exchanges or over-the-counter markets, which could mean higher risk.
A Hedge Fund’s fees and expenses-which may be substantial regardless of any positive return- will offset the Hedge Fund’s trading profits. In a fund of funds or similar structure, fees are generally charged at the fund as well as the sub-fund levels; therefore fees charged investors will be higher that those charged if the investor invested directly in the sub-fund(s).
Hedge Funds are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors.
Hedge Funds and their managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.

The above general summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in Hedge Funds and, with respect to any particular Hedge Fund, is subject to the more complete and specific disclosures contained in such Hedge Fund’s respective offering documents. Before making any investment, an investor should thoroughly review a Hedge Fund’s offering documents with the investor’s financial, legal and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the Hedge Fund is suitable for the investor in light of the investor’s investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax situation.

All performance information is believed to be net of applicable fees unless otherwise specifically noted. No representation is made that any fund will or is likely to achieve its objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative, and is no guarantee, of future results.

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The information on this Site is as of the date(s) indicated, is not a complete description of any fund, and is subject to the more complete disclosures and terms and conditions contained in a particular fund's offering documents, which may be obtained directly from the fund. Certain of the information, including investment returns, valuations, fund targets and strategies, has been supplied by the funds or their agents, and other third parties, and although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No warranty, express or implied, representation or guarantee is made as to the accuracy, validity, timeliness, completeness or suitability of this information.

Any indices and other financial benchmarks shown are provided for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged, reflect reinvestment of income and dividends and do not reflect the impact of advisory fees. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Comparisons to indexes have limitations because indexes have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from a particular hedge fund. For example, a hedge fund may typically hold substantially fewer securities than are contained in an index. Indices also may contain securities or types of securities that are not comparable to those traded by a hedge fund. Therefore, a hedge fund’s performance may differ substantially from the performance of an index. Because of these differences, indexes should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison.