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Market Timing Related News
 in chronological order

 See also: Market Timing Related Books, Market Timing Related Scholarly Papers, or Market Timing Home Page.

Table of Contents:
 

Commentary: It's been a very bad year for the Seasonality Timing System
April 16, 2007
From MarketWatch:
 This year has been a very bad one for the Seasonality Timing System, a market-timing system that calls for getting into and out of stocks according to nothing more than the calendar.

What's the big deal about that, you say?

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Timing is everything in comedy, not investing
April 15, 2007
From USA Today:
 Q: I recently moved all my stock investments into money market funds because I can't afford to lose. Is it safe to put the money back into stocks?

A: Your question concerns me. If you're so nervous about your stocks that you're willing to jump in and out, your portfolio may be too aggressive.

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Market-beating market timers are more bullish than the laggards
March 18, 2007
From MarketWatch:
 On Monday, the broad market hit a new intraday low for the correction that began last Fall.

The previous intraday low for the correction was set on January 23, when the intraday low for the Standard & Poor's 500 index was 1,270.05. On Monday, in contrast; this index's intraday low was 1,256.98, more than 1% lower.
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Timing the markets?

March 17, 2007
From Business Day:
 Summit TV speaks to Warren Ingram from Galileo Capital about flexible funds and funds of flexible funds - but the crucial question remains is anyone smart enough to time the markets?

BRUCE WHITFIELD: People who create financial products are also often creative when it comes to names calling them “guaranteed products” or guaranteed something - one is not always certain exactly what that means - and then there’s “flexible funds” but are they really that flexible? There’s a myriad of other investment offerings which have grandiose names - but they don’t necessarily always match up to our expectations of them. Warren Ingram is from Galileo Capital and he is in the Summit TV studio. Warren, flexible funds is our focus this evening - I don’t mean to be unkind about what people call their products, they’re entitled to call them whatever they like - but “flexible” refers to a particular style of investing which is what exactly?
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SEC fines A.G. Edwards brokers in market-timing scheme
March 12, 2007
From STLtoday.com:
 An administrative law judge with the Securities and Exchange Commission ordered three brokers with the former A.G. Edwards brokerage firm to pay fines and give up money netted in a market timing scheme based in Massachusetts and Florida.

In May, A.G. Edwards agreed to pay $3.86 million in fines to settle federal charges that it failed to supervise brokers in the scheme, which involved frequent trades in clients' mutual fund accounts. Trades occurred from September 2001 until September 2003.
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Big is better
March 11, 2007
From MarketWatch:
 Large-cap stocks, which have significantly outperformed smaller-cap stocks over the past couple of years, are likely to continue their winning ways.

That at least is the forecast of a market-timing model maintained by Ford Equity Research of San Diego. This firm is on my radar screen because it publishes Ford Equity Research Investment Review. And its market-timing model deserves to be on your radar screens because it has a good long-term record.

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Timing Your Way to Retirement
March 6, 2007
From The Motley Fool:
 A recession is coming! Get out of the market! Buy gold! Buy defensive stocks like Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A), Altria (NYSE: MO), and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT)! Hide under the bed! Quick!

Surely you've seen headlines like these, and you've probably wondered if you should be making changes to your retirement portfolio. After all, things are clearly going downhill, aren't they? Shouldn't you be thinking about getting out of stocks altogether, at least until things turn around?

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To Time or Not to Time?
March 6, 2007
From HoweStreet.com:
 Mark Twain once said the return of his money is more important than the return on his money. Many investors get into this same mindset when they look at the market during volatile times like the current environment.

So why would I even begin to suggest that you try to time the market? It’s simple. That’s how you make money over time.
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Black Swans, Portfolio Theory and Market Timing
February 11, 2007
From SeekingAlpha:
 This is an article that I have wanted to write for a long time, but a number of recent events have inspired me to finally commit it to paper. Phil DeMuth and Ben Stein recently published a book, Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio (Hay House 2008), in which they are attempting to bring the value and concepts of portfolio theory to a broad audience. The core of the book explains how a good statistical model of the portfolio can enable investors to build better portfolios and they use Quantext Portfolio Planner (which I developed) for their demonstration cases. The essence of ‘better portfolios’ is to get more return for less risk.

At the very start of February 2008, Phil decided to look at a few of the ‘model’ portfolios described in the book and how they had fared through the volatile previous quarter. This period (November 2007-January 2008) exhibited substantial market declines and Phil wanted to see whether what the models had suggested was indeed playing out. He published an article on this on Seeking Alpha.

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Investors struggle with timing return to stock market
February 10, 2007
From The Columbus Dispatch:
 Lloyd Philip doesn't trust this market and isn't making any long-term bets because he sees Wall Street's list of worries as too long.

Philip, a 33-year-old investor in Philadelphia, plans to jump in for the long haul when the Standard and Poor's 500 index -- the benchmark used by most professionals -- has fallen 20 percent to 30 percent from its October highs. But while stocks remain volatile and have shown some very tentative signs of searching for a bottom recently, the question for those who fled the market becomes: When do I get back in?
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Does Market Timing Actually Work?
January 9, 2007
From Seeking Alpha:
 Why not just buy low and sell high? That’s easy enough, right? The classical answer is a resounding no and there are reams of analyses to prove that it’s not a good idea to try to do this. Most arguments against timing make the case that the market is extremely volatile and impossible to predict. It’s extremely easy to miss the best performing days and if you do you will have substantially worse performance than if you had stayed in the market the entire time. I’ve seen many variations of the following analysis [1] over the years:
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Market-Timing Abuses Cost Morgan $17M
January 7, 2007
From Wolters Kluwer:
 The SEC has agreed to terms with Morgan Stanley for failing to supervise four brokers who it claims created accounts in order to avoid market timing restrictions.

While the firm agreed to settle with the regulator for $17 million, the Commission went ahead and charged two of the reps, while settling with a third. The regulator did not identify the fourth individual yet.
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Timing is everything to investors - or is it?
December 26, 2007
From Emirates Business 24/7:
 They say timing is everything, and it certainly is true for stand-up comedians. Whether it’s true for investors is a hotly disputed subject. The staid old mutual fund companies are very sniffy about market timing, which is the attempt by the likes of you and me to buy stocks or bonds when they’re all cheap and unload them before they all drop in price – in other words to guess when the cycle will turn just before it does.

The Vanguard Group, the vast Pennsylvania money managers who pioneered index stock funds for retail investors, repeat the mantra “stay the course” every chance they get. They must have people like me in mind.
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Stop Fretting -- Just Invest It
December 23, 2007
From The Wall Street Journal Online:
 Year-end bonuses are just around the corner, but putting that money into stocks may not seem so smart right now. The market has been gyrating wildly, with cliff-hanging swings not seen in almost a decade. Maybe it's better to wait for a more attractive time to invest, you might think.

But that's probably not the way to go. If you're thinking of directing a bonus or other financial windfall to stocks and you won't need the money for several years at least, take a page from Nike and just do it.
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It takes guts, not timing
December 17, 2007
From TheTimes.co.za:
 Many investors believe that they can time the market. It would be so nice, wouldn’t it, to sell before every market drop and then get back in just as the good times roll again.

But, as the fund managers will tell you, it is hard to pull off. Nobody knows exactly when markets will turn, not even the experts.
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Excess returns: All about market timing
December 16, 2007
From The Hindu Business Line:
 Asset prices are galloping at a fast pace in the Indian market. Many investors have not participated in the recent uptrend for the fear of a sharp turn in prices. Market timing is, hence, a relevant topic in the current environment.

Professor Javier Estrada’s paper “Black Swans and Market Timing: How not to generate alpha” concludes that “market timing is an entertaining pastime but not a good way to make money.” He argues that if a portfolio manager misses the ten best days in the market, the portfolio annual returns reduce by 3 percentage points.

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'Buy and Hold': As True Now as Ever
November 29, 2007
From Seeking Alpha:
 At times like this, old-fashioned advice such as ‘buy, hold, and don’t pay attention’ works extremely well. I’ve had several clients call over the past few weeks concerned about the day-to-day volatility in the stock and bond markets. I try to quickly remind everyone that asset allocation, diversification, and a solid financial plan are the ways to help achieve wealth--not cashing out a stock when it’s making money and trying to time getting back in after the price drops. That strategy, known as market timing, is a losing proposition over the long run and is better to avoid altogether. So what has the market in such a panic? I’ll give you a few different perspectives.

First, you have those technical guys who think market conditions such as tight credit and high oil prices have nothing to do with anything. They believe the market moves from a technical standpoint only and analyzing the state of the economy is a waste of time. Technical traders believe markets can be read--even predicted--based on chart patterns. Having a technical perspective probably makes sense to many when it seems like even when good news pervades the markets, stock prices find a way to decline by 4:00. Many people who analyze the market in this way expect to see a 10% ‘correction’ (dip) in stock prices at least once every five years. As of this week, we’ve seen the 10% correction and the markets bounced back strongly between Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Smart Advice for the HuffPost Investor
November 27, 2007
From The Huffington Post:
 Is it time to sell everything, organize your survival gear and head for the hills?

The market timers are telling us that this might be a wise time to consider such drastic action. They predict a market crash, with disastrous consequences for all of us.

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Of Blind Squirrels and Flying Pigs: The Fallacy of Market Predictions
November 22, 2007
From Seeking Alpha:
 A prediction about the direction of the stock market tells you nothing about where stocks are headed, but a whole lot about the person doing the predicting. —Warren Buffett

The dollar is collapsing and global investors are dumping dollars so it will continue to fall. That in turn will lead to higher inflation and then the Fed will have to raise interest rates. Oil is closing in on $100 a barrel. We have the worst housing market since the Great Depression. There is a financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage debacle. Banks are tightening credit standards. And if you needed more reasons to believe the stock market was headed south you could always throw in global warming.

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Stock Market Seasonality – Historical Data, Trends & Market Timing
November 22, 2007
From The Market Oracle:
 We are entering what has historically been the best season to be invested in the stock market. According to Ned Davis Research if an individual invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from November 1 st to April 30 th every year from 1950 to 2006 – the ‘winter season' – and held cash in their account for the remainder of each year the account would be worth an astonishing $38,700 before tax considerations.

If, over the same 56 year period, an investor had invested the $1,000 in the S&P 500 index from May 1 st to October 31 st – the ‘summer season' – and held cash in their account for the remainder of each year the account would be worth $916. During that 56 year period an investor in the stock market using this seasonality strategy would have lost money.
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As the Calendar Turns, So Do Many Stocks’ Fortunes
November 18, 2007
From The New York Times:
 IT’S hardly earth-shattering news when a particular stock performs better in one month than another. But what if those standout months — of especially strong or weak performance — remain the same, year in and year out?

This pattern occurs for many stocks, according to a new study. Though its authors couldn’t explain why stocks would adhere to such monthly rhythms, they believe that the pattern is strong enough to influence the timing of investments. Before you buy or sell a particular stock, they suggest, you should first check how it performed in the same calendar month in previous years.

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3 Myths About the Turbulent Market
November 15, 2007
From MSNBC:
 The past few months haven't been short of hair-raising moments in the stock market. From panic to jubilation, and then back to panic, it's hard to tell exactly what's been going on. A credit crunch, a housing crash, a weak dollar, lower interest rates -- it's a lot to take in.

Regardless of whatever problem happens to pop up, there are several investing myths that come up during turbulent market periods. Here's just a few of them to think about.
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There's another way to protect small investor
November 12, 2007
From InvestmentNews: